Senators Return From India With High Hopes for Better Relations
Five-months after the landslide election of Narendra Modi as India's prime minister, U.S. lawmakers are increasingly optimistic about prospects for more robust security cooperation and greater bilateral trade and investment.
“Right after the Modi government came in, from afar I looked at it and saw this as a great opportunity for deeper economic integration . . . also military and security cooperation,” Sen Tim Kaine, D-Va., a member of both the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees said in a telephone interview after returning last week with Maine independent Angus King from a fact-finding trip to India. “This trip completely confirmed what I thought from afar.”
King said in a separate phone interview he too was impressed with the enthusiasm in India about Modi that was reminiscent of John F. Kennedy's "New Frontier."
“Everybody over there is very excited," said King, who sits on the Senate Armed Services and Select Intelligence committees. "People are very positive. I kind of got the feeling that these guys were talking about Kennedy.”
Modi, leader of the right-wing Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, won a landslide election in May over the Indian National Congress, which has governed for most of India's 67 years of independence. U.S. relations with India under Manmohan Singh's previous Congress-led government peaked with finalization of a landmark nuclear cooperation agreement in 2008, but appeared to stagnate as the Singh government became focused on domestic matters including a spate of political corruption scandals and lower economic growth.
King and Kaine — neither of whom had previously traveled to India — visited New Delhi and Mumbai and met with American embassy officials, think-tank experts, U.S. and Indian businessmen, and Indian parliamentarians during their three days in the country. Their trip also included stops in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Qatar.
Prospects for Collaboration
“The interesting thing is that the Indians started with the premise that we have a lot in common — values, democracy — there seemed to be a genuine positive inclination to greater cooperation,” King said. “And this was across the board — businesspeople, people in parliament, people in the government — there seemed to be some genuine desire for closer connection.”
Kaine said he sees three areas where the United States can expand its defense cooperation with India: military exercises, weapons platform development and intelligence exchanges.
The number of U.S.-led military exercises that India participates in is “dramatically increasing,” observed the first-term senator, adding that he expected the trend to continue.
India recently participated in two major drills with the United States, according to the Defense Department. A bilateral September training, Yudh Abhyas, involved roughly 300 U.S. soldiers and included cultural exchanges and training focused on boosting the capacity for cooperation between the American and Indian armies. A U.S.-India-Japan maritime drill in July called Malabar included at-sea training in search-and-rescue operations and anti-submarine warfare.
Kaine said New Delhi recently opened its military procurement processes to allow for more participation by privately held companies. For U.S. defense companies that are “willing to work in a joint venture or partnership, I think they can find some real opportunities” in the country, the junior Virginia senator said.
He said India and the United States are "natural partners" in counterterrorism and intelligence efforts, given the large-scale attacks both countries have experienced. Kaine noted that large numbers of Indian workers reside in nations like Iraq that are vulnerable to terrorist attacks by groups including the Islamic State. India’s continuing tense relationship with Pakistan also was a topic of discussion during stops in both countries, the senators said.
“We had chance to talk both to Indian officials and Pakistani officials about the virtues of a peaceful border,” Kaine said. He said the deadly skirmishes that have recently resumed along the Line of Control separating Pakistani- and Indian-held parts of Kashmir has "probably been more aggressive" than in the past and has dampened hopes for a thaw in relations that greeted Modi's invitation for Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, to attend his inauguration in May. New Delhi subsequently canceled a meeting of the countries' foreign ministers that had been scheduled for August.
“I wish that I could report that there was hopeful progress” toward better relations between India and Pakistan, but it remains an “enormously difficult” issue, King said.
Lisa Curtis, a Heritage Foundation senior research fellow who focuses on South Asia security issues, warned that tensions with Pakistan have the potential to hinder Modi’s domestic agenda. “It could basically distract the Modi government from being able to focus on building up the economy and building up relationships with other countries,” she said.
Cutting Through Red Tape
Modi’s emphasis on reducing India’s infamous red tape is particularly encouraging, King said. The senator said everyone he spoke with in India complained about the country’s excessive bureaucracy, and he learned that a restaurant at which he dined needed 30 different permits before it could begin operating.
“He is really trying to move the bureaucracy,” King said, citing accounts of Modi firing government officials who failed to arrive at work on time.
But full implementation of the bilateral nuclear trade deal that allows American firms to export civilian atomic materials and technology for use in energy-hungry India appears to be making little headway. An Indian law that would hold the providers of nuclear technology liable in the event of a reactor accident has discouraged U.S. companies from exporting to India.
“I think it is a genuine standoff right now,” King said. He said an Indian parliamentarian told him the 2011 nuclear power disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi complex in Japan and the 1984 chemical disaster that killed 3,000 people in Bhopal have created a “very sensitive” situation leaving little room for political compromise.
“I couldn’t predict how that is going to come out," King said. "It is a roadblock right now."
Concerns About Sectarianism
Despite the promise of better relations with the world’s largest democracy, King expressed lingering reservations about Modi's handling of large-scale rioting that killed more than 1,000 people, mostly Muslims, when he served as chief minister of the state of Gujarat in 2002. Modi was accused of doing too little to suppress the violence, which was precipitated by the burning of a train that killed 59 Hindu pilgrims, and the George W. Bush administration revoked his tourist visa in 2005 under the International Religious Freedom Act (PL 105-292). Modi's authorization to travel to the United States was just reinstated this year.
“I think it is a concern and I think it is something that he is going to have to prove himself on — that he is not going to govern as a sectarian,” King said. “Because of those experiences in Gujarat, I think he has something to prove there.”
Curtis said sectarianism under a Modi government is a “big concern” given Modi's reputation as a "communal politician.”
Still, she noted that Modi voiced concerns about the comparatively lower socioeconomic position of Indian Muslims in his first address to Parliament and has "said some good things that might lead people to believe that he is getting away from the communal agenda and is sort of forging a new reputation as a national leader and getting away from the Hindu nationalist rhetoric.”
India, a country of 1.2 billion people, is 80 percent Hindu, 13 percent Muslim and 2 percent Christian, according to the CIA World Factbook.
“I think [Modi] is savvy enough to understand that if he embarks on the communal path that he is going to lose international support and that doesn’t fit with his overall goal, which is to bring international investment into India,” Curtis said.
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